Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 60%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 17 ore fa
Obsoleto18 ott 23, 04:06 UTC2 gen 35, 07:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegole
The typical defition of war; at least 1000 combatant deaths.
- It doesn't have to be solely fought over AI, but AI must be a significant cause.
- Update 2025-06-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In a scenario involving robot combat, the 1000 combatant deaths can consist of:
- Machines that are generally believed to be sentient
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume totale
- 35,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1K €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 altri esiti
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will there be a war over AI before 2035??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 60% al 8 settembre 2026.
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- Will there be a war over AI before 2035? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2035.
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- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: The typical defition of war; at least 1000 combatant deaths.