Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 51%
Previsori
8
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto27 mag 25, 02:19 UTC1 gen 40, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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PolymarketRegole
Resolution Criteria:
- This market will resolve YES if, before January 1, 2040, credible sources (e.g., official governmental announcements, reputable international media, major academic institutions) report a military conflict involving both the United States and China resulting in at least 1,000 confirmed military deaths for each side.
- Military deaths must include uniformed personnel, excluding civilian casualties or indirect deaths (e.g., deaths from economic disruption or secondary effects).
- Covert or proxy conflicts will count ONLY if direct involvement of official U.S. and Chinese military personnel is verifiably documented by credible sources, resulting in at least 1,000 fatalities on each side.
- This market resolves NO if no such conflict meeting the criteria occurs by January 1, 2040.