Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 95.7%
Previsori
12
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 17 ore fa
Obsoleto27 apr 26, 07:52 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Where will the largest magnitude Earthquake be in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
KalshiWhere will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of September?
PolymarketMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
PolymarketWhat will be the highest magnitude of an earthquake near the Phlegraean Fields in italy (Campi Flegrei) in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
PolymarketRegole
"The Big One"
Mercati aperti
SciencePOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 301%
- April 300%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 57,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 86,7K €
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 203076%
- Before 2029+38.1pt70%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 153,9K €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 2028+1.0pt13%
- Before 2027-0.3pt5%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 28,6 Mln €
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1+5.0pt75.5%
- 2-0.5pt21.6%
- 32%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume totale
- 1,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2K €
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Yes-3.6pt77%
- No23%
- Volume totale
- 286,1K €
- Volume 24h
- 3,5K €
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- How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- When will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will there be a 6.7 or greater magnitude earthquake in San Francisco in 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 96% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will there be a 6.7 or greater magnitude earthquake in San Francisco in 2026??
- Will there be a 6.7 or greater magnitude earthquake in San Francisco in 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will there be a 6.7 or greater magnitude earthquake in San Francisco in 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: "The Big One"