Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 72%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 4 ore fa
Obsoleto11 giu 25, 23:08 UTC1 feb 27, 00:00 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will "Church Planting: When Venture Capital Finds Jesus" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Orienting Toward Wizard Power" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Omniscaling to MNIST" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Anthropic's leading researchers acted as mode..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketAll Millennium Prize Problems solved before EOY?
Manifold MarketsRegole
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post the void is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Mercati aperti
SciencePOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.4pt3%
- September 30+0.1pt0%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 61,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 750,8K €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202920%
- Before 2028-1.0pt13%
- Before 20275%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 30,1 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 30K €
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1+0.5pt75%
- 2+1.0pt24%
- 3+0.1pt1%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Yes-1.0pt69%
- No31%
- Volume totale
- 311,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 1,8K €
KALSHIWhen will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- before 2027+17.0pt95%
- before December+20.0pt90%
- before November+30.0pt86%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+2.0pt40%
- Above 1+3.0pt18%
- Above 24%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 109,9K €
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- When will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?
- Lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026?
- Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?
- How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
- AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many tuberculosis cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
- What named storms will be hurricanes in the Central Pacific this year?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will "the void" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 72% al 23 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will "the void" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review??
- Will "the void" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 febbraio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will "the void" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.