Will the US enter a depression if the Republicans win the midterms?
EconomiaOne-OffPoliticaPolitica USAElezione2a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 15 ott 2026, 18:47 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 89.4%
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4
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 40 minuti fa
13 ott 26, 04:48 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the US enter a depression if the Democrats win the midterms?
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KalshiIf Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US enter a recession in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Depression defined as
- a 10% decrease in GDP, OR
- an economic contraction lasting 3 or more years, OR
- unemployment rates >20%, OR
- 2 years of deflation due to decreased demand (must be combined with other spikes, e.g. high unemployment >10% but not reaching 20%, or significant underemployment where everyone is driving Uber or other gigwork, and/or a significant decrease in GDP >5% but that does not quite reach 10%), OR
- Widespread banking collapse, debt defaults, lots of lost money, (must be combined with other spikes, see previous point)