Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the US enter a depression if the Democrats win the midterms??

Manifold Markets quota No al 89% al 15 ottobre 2026.

Come viene liquidato Will the US enter a depression if the Democrats win the midterms??

Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Depression defined as

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

No 89%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 11 ore fa

Obsoleto

13 ott 26, 04:45 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

Depression defined as

a 10% decrease in GDP, OR
an economic contraction lasting 3 or more years, OR
unemployment rates >20%, OR
2 years of deflation due to decreased demand (must be combined with other spikes, e.g. high unemployment >10% but not reaching 20%, or significant underemployment where everyone is driving Uber or other gigwork, and/or a significant decrease in GDP >5% but that does not quite reach 10%), OR
Widespread banking collapse, debt defaults, lots of lost money, (must be combined with other spikes, see previous point)