Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 83%
Previsori
18
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto14 mar 26, 13:09 UTC30 giu 28, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Kalshi reduce its taker fees in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsWhat will Dominos say during their next earnings call?
KalshiFed Decision in September?
PolymarketCPI in August
KalshiRegole
Resolves identically to: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcitrini/will-the-citrini-scenario-materialize/kxcitrini-28jul01
- If at least 3 of:
- unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS);
- S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance;
- Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix;
- labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%;
Confronto tra fonti di previsione
Mercati aperti
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt46%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 90,1 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,4 Mln €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 358,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 35,8K €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
+23 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 548,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 28,8K €
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+3.0pt54.2%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.8%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 altri esiti
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 79,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 7,6K €
POLYMARKETCore CPI MoM - August 2026
- 0.2%-1.0pt51.9%
- 0.3%+4.5pt34.6%
- 0.1%-3.0pt9.6%
+4 altri esiti
- CPI core in August
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- CPI in September
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- August Inflation US - Annual
- CPI-U index in August
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi]?
- Manifold Markets quota No al 83% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi]?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi] dovrebbe risolversi il 30 giugno 2028.
- Come viene liquidato Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi]?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves identically to: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcitrini/will-the-citrini-scenario-materialize/kxcitrini-28jul01
- Dove altro è quotato Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi]?
- La stessa domanda è quotata anche su Kalshi.