Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?
InflationOne-OffEconomiaEquitiesBusiness & CorporateSociety & Culture2aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 58.9%
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Aggiornato 10 minuti fa
14 feb 26, 17:26 UTC14 feb 29, 17:23 UTC
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Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?
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Freddie deBoer offered Scott Alexander the following wager (see https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/im-offering-scott-alexander-a-wager )
- Let's say that they did agree under those original conditions.
- Each one is very wide, but he only has to lose once.
- This resolves to YES if Freddie is right about ALL of these conditions.
- This resolves to NO if Freddie is wrong about AT LEAST ONE of these conditions.
- Bet Conditions (Predicting a “Normal Economy”)