Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?
InflationOne-OffEconomiaEquitiesBusiness & CorporateSociety & Culture2aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 64%
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6
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 17 ore fa
Obsoleto1 ago 26, 16:23 UTC14 feb 29, 17:23 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander (ACX author) come to Austin and attend or host a public event in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Citrini scenario happen?
KalshiFed Decision in September?
PolymarketCPI in August
KalshiRegole
Freddie deBoer offered Scott Alexander the following wager (see https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/im-offering-scott-alexander-a-wager )
- Let's say that they did agree under those original conditions.
- Each one is very wide, but he only has to lose once.
- This resolves to YES if Freddie is right about ALL of these conditions.
- This resolves to NO if Freddie is wrong about AT LEAST ONE of these conditions.
- Bet Conditions (Predicting a “Normal Economy”)
Mercati aperti
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt52.5%
- No change-3.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 89,5 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 2,3 Mln €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 323,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 25,3K €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 523K €
- Volume 24h
- 22K €
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt54.3%
- September Meeting+3.0pt45.7%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETArgentina Monthly Inflation - August
- 1.5-1.7%-9.9pt68.8%
- 1.8-2.0%+8.2pt26%
- 1.2-1.4%-3.0pt3.1%
+5 altri esiti
KALSHIWill the Citrini scenario happen?
- No83%
- Yes17%
- Volume totale
- 22,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 4,4K €
- August Inflation US - Annual
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core PCE YoY - August 2026
- Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.4% in August 2026?
- Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.2% in August 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- Egg prices up in August?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 64% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander??
- Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander? dovrebbe risolversi il 14 febbraio 2029.
- Come viene liquidato Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Freddie deBoer offered Scott Alexander the following wager (see https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/im-offering-scott-alexander-a-wager )