Will the annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature in 2026 be 1.5°C above the 1850–1900 average ?
GeopoliticaMeteoDaily2m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 91.3%
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2
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto2 giu 26, 00:00 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the mean global near-surface temperature for 2023-2027 exceed 1.5℃ above the preindustrial average?
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ForecastExRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on the central estimate of the annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature anomaly relative to the pre-industrial (1850–1900) baseline for the calendar year 2026.
- Primary Source: The World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) official State of the Global Climate 2026 report, typically published in March or April 2027.
- The report series can be tracked via the WMO Climate Reports library.
- Resolution Rule:
- YES: If the WMO's consolidated central estimate for the 2026 global mean temperature anomaly is 1.50°C or higher relative to the 1850–1900 baseline.
