Previsione della comunità attuale
No 88.1%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 33 minuti fa
12 lug 25, 18:36 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature in 2026 be 1.5°C above the 1850–1900 average ?
Manifold MarketsWhen will serious deployment of Solar Radiation Management (climate intervention) begin?
Manifold MarketsWill a lunar dust shield be created to reduce global warming by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill the mean global near-surface temperature for 2023-2027 exceed 1.5℃ above the preindustrial average?
Manifold MarketsAverage global surface air temperature anomaly in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline?
FutuurBrazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026?
FutuurRegole
Resolution criteria:
- Resolves YES if I am 80% confident that this has occurred.
- Peer-reviewed studies making this claim will probably be necessary, but not necessarily sufficient.
- The intervention must be intentional (excludes coincidental effects of non-climate policies)
- The temperature reduction need not be expected to be repeated the following year, e.g., if the intervention was temporary.
- Learn more about climate interventions : https://climateinterventions.org/
