Will the 2025-26 US flu season be classified as "high severity" by the CDC?
EconomiaOne-OffHealth & Medicine3m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 98.7%
Previsori
13
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto11 dic 25, 10:03 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
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PolymarketCPI in August
KalshiInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
KalshiRegole
The 2025-26 flu season has started unusually early, driven by the H3N2 subclade K strain that emerged in summer 2025 after the season's vaccine composition was already finalized.
- This mutated strain has caused significant outbreaks in Japan, the UK, and Canada, with health officials warning it could produce the worst flu season in over a decade.
- The CDC classifies flu season severity using its Influenza Risk Assessment Tool (IRAT) and tracks cumulative hospitalization rates through the FluSurv-NET surveillance system.
- A "high severity" classification is typically assigned when cumulative hospitalization rates significantly exceed historical baselines and meet specific threshold criteria.
- Resolution criteria: This market resolves YES if the CDC officially classifies the 2025-26 influenza season as "high severity" in any official report, press release, or surveillance summary published by June 1, 2026.
- Resolves NO if the season is classified as "low" or "moderate" severity, or if no official severity classification is issued by the resolution date.
Mercati aperti
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 89,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 Mln €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 541,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 30,7K €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 334,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 12,8K €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 10,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 10,7K €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volume totale
- 612,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 6,9K €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volume totale
- 2,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 5,3K €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
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- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
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- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the 2025-26 US flu season be classified as "high severity" by the CDC??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 99% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the 2025-26 US flu season be classified as "high severity" by the CDC??
- Will the 2025-26 US flu season be classified as "high severity" by the CDC? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will the 2025-26 US flu season be classified as "high severity" by the CDC??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: The 2025-26 flu season has started unusually early, driven by the H3N2 subclade K strain that emerged in summer 2025 after the season's vaccine composition was already finalized.