Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?
Crime & JusticeOne-OffHealth & Medicine
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 60%
Previsori
102
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 43 minuti fa
31 mar 23, 12:45 UTC1 gen 00, 05:00 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
By when will the Covid lab leak market resolve?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the Covid lab leak market resolve?
Manifold MarketsWill the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027?
Manifold MarketsNew COVID variant of concern before 2027?
PolymarketTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
PolymarketTrump out as President before 2027?
PolymarketRegole
Here is the market in question:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory)I've tried to make it clear that I'm only going to resolve it once there's overwhelming evidence in one direction or another, no more serious concerns about relevant evidence being hidden, I'll talk to experts, etc. That said, it still ultimately comes down to my personal opinion, and, very reasonably, some people don't feel fully comfortable trusting that on such a controversial and politically charged topic.
- So, after that market resolves, I'll post a poll about whether Manifold users agree with the decision.
- (Alt accounts are ignored, and moderators count for 5x the votes of others.
- I don't get a vote myself.) If at least 10% of the vote disagrees, this market resolves YES.
- I will be trying to make sure that votes are an accurate representation of that user's beliefs, so as to avoid trolls who vote dishonestly.
Mercati aperti
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+11.5pt65%
- Yes-11.5pt35%
- Volume totale
- 347,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 12,4K €
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Volume totale
- 9,8 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 6,8K €
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt21%
- 2026-0.1pt5%
- Volume totale
- 498,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 6,1K €
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 30-0.5pt7%
+3 altri esiti
POLYMARKETMaduro Prison Time?
- No prison time+1.5pt42.6%
- 60++1.5pt38.6%
- 20–40+1.4pt10.9%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETAndrew Tate released from custody by which date?
- December 31-7.5pt13%
- July 31-0.1pt0%
- August 31-0.6pt0%
- Who will be arrested in 2026?
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- James Comey charges dropped by December 31?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Hasan Piker arrested in 2026?
- Will Yale settle with DOJ over Law School admissions?
- Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by which date?
- Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 60% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial??
- Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2100.
- Come viene liquidato Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Here is the market in question: