Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 98.6%
Previsori
45
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto5 ago 23, 20:45 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
In December of 2026, will Wikipedia ascribe higher credence to the lab leak theory than it did in December of 2023?
Manifold MarketsWho will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?
Manifold MarketsNew COVID variant of concern before 2027?
PolymarketHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketNew pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketRegole
This market is supplimental to "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?":
- https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory
- [link preview]I found a few problems with main COVID market including a long resolution threshold (17 years) and an inactive market creator.
- I believe the long resolution time might be the primary culprit for the YES market skew.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve as YES if clear and definitive evidence is presented by investigators of a lab leak.
Mercati aperti
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No97%
- Yes3%
- Volume totale
- 15,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 20,4K €
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Volume totale
- 919K €
- Volume 24h
- 4,2K €
KALSHIMedtronic cardiovascular growth in Q2
- Above 8%92%
- Above 9%81%
- Above 11.5%53%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 2,6K €
POLYMARKETMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- ↑3.5k+0.1pt100%
- ↑500+0.1pt100%
- ↑1k+0.1pt100%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000+3.0pt61%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 866,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7K €
KALSHIPandemic in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes5%
- Volume totale
- 611,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 1,1K €
- When will Beam Therapeutics submit a BLA for Risto-cel?
- Which countries will report an Ebola disease case before October?
- When will the FDA approve Intellia Therapeutics' lonvo-z?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Heidi Overton confirmed as FDA Commissioner by which date?
- Will the FDA approve retatrutide?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- Measles cases in U.S. by September 30?
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 99% al 10 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027??
- Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This market is supplimental to "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?":