Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeAlina Chan 80%In testa tra 18 esiti
Previsori
21
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 11 ore fa
Obsoleto15 mar 25, 21:40 UTC16 mar 30, 06:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027?
Manifold MarketsIn December of 2026, will Wikipedia ascribe higher credence to the lab leak theory than it did in December of 2023?
Manifold MarketsWill my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?
Manifold MarketsNew COVID variant of concern before 2027?
PolymarketHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketNew pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketRegole
Covid's origin has been debated for 5 years now, with the most popular theories being a natural spillover from wildlife or some kind of laboratory accident.
- Many people have strong opinions on this question, from scientists to pundits.
- This question seeks to answer how those opinions will change, after another 5 years have passed.
- At the resolution date, I will search for the most recent statement from each person listed.
- If they say that a lab origin is more likely, I will resolve that name to yes.
- If they say that zoonosis is more likely, I will resolve that name to no.
Mercati aperti
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No97%
- Yes3%
- Volume totale
- 15,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 20,4K €
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Volume totale
- 919K €
- Volume 24h
- 4,2K €
KALSHIMedtronic cardiovascular growth in Q2
- Above 8%92%
- Above 9%81%
- Above 11.5%53%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 2,6K €
POLYMARKETMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- ↑3.5k+0.1pt100%
- ↑500+0.1pt100%
- ↑1k+0.1pt100%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000+3.0pt61%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 866,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7K €
KALSHIPandemic in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes5%
- Volume totale
- 611,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 1,1K €
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- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- Measles cases in U.S. by September 30?
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota Alina Chan al 80% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030??
- Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 16 marzo 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Covid's origin has been debated for 5 years now, with the most popular theories being a natural spillover from wildlife or some kind of laboratory accident.