PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
December 31, 3%+0.1pt
Qualità del mercato
57 / 100
Qualità mediaVolume 24h
3,7 €
Liquidità
15,2K €
Liquidità mediaBid / Ask
2.0% / 3.3%
Spread
1.3 pt
Spread strettoCommenti
1
Variazione 7g
+0.8 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 minuti fa
13 feb 26, 00:08 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
Trend
0%
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will MrBeast (Jimmy Donaldson) be convicted of a crime before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens 2026
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketZhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
PolymarketWill Zhang Youxia re-appear in public, alive, by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
KalshiRegole
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
- If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
- Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
- Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+4.0pt77%
- September 18+4.0pt72%
- September 11+8.0pt67%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 512,6K €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-0.8pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.5pt50.4%
- October 31-2.5pt27.8%
- September 30-1.0pt12.2%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+5.0pt84.2%
- Yes-5.0pt15.8%
- Volume totale
- 9,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 266,5K €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume totale
- 56,1 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 170,4K €
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Jimmy Lai released by which date??
- Polymarket quota December 31, al 3% al 10 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Jimmy Lai released by which date??
- Jimmy Lai released by which date? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Jimmy Lai released by which date??
- Polymarket liquida questo mercato come segue: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.