Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 95.7%
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Aggiornato 51 minuti fa
In ritardo24 ago 26, 00:37 UTC24 feb 27, 00:33 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Levent Alpöge's S⁶ complex-structure paper be posted to arXiv by October 15, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the purported construction of a complex structure on S^6 by Levent Alpöge turn out to be correct?
Manifold MarketsWill a proof of Fermat's Last Theorem simple enough for Fermat to have possessed be found by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegole
Tweet thread for context:
- [tweet]For this to resolve YES, the original proof does not need to be perfect.
- It is not uncommon for there to be minor (and easily fixable) mistakes in a long technical proof.
- The key question is whether they are "easily fixable".
- This can resolve NO as soon as the proof is demonstrated to be substantially incorrect and there has been a reasonable enough wait time to ensure that there isn't some "easy fix" to address the issue.
- Otherwise, I plan to resolve this YES if it has been 6 months after market creation and academic consensus appears to believe the proof.
Mercati aperti
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 226,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 125,2K €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 28,6 Mln €
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 108,3K €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Volume totale
- 1,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2K €
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 altri esiti
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Levent's proof that S^6 admits a complex structure hold up??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 96% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Levent's proof that S^6 admits a complex structure hold up??
- Will Levent's proof that S^6 admits a complex structure hold up? dovrebbe risolversi il 24 febbraio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will Levent's proof that S^6 admits a complex structure hold up??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Tweet thread for context: