Will Iran strike US military base at least once in September?
MonthlyGeopoliticaMiddle EastHealth & Medicine22gManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 61.3%
Previsori
12
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 minuti fa
5 set 26, 04:38 UTC30 set 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Manifold MarketsRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, between its creation on September 5, 2026, and September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, Iranian state military forces (including the regular military/Artesh or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps/IRGC) execute an attack that successfully strikes a U.S. military base or a military facility housing U.S. armed forces.
- For the purposes of this market, a "strike" requires a projectile, missile, or drone to physically impact, detonate within the perimeter of, or cause documented damage or casualties at the targeted U.S. military facility.
- Attacks that are fully intercepted, shot down, or land harmlessly outside the facility's perimeter without causing documented damage or casualties will resolve the market to NO.
- Any attacks that occurred prior to the market's creation (such as the attacks on September 1–3, 2026) are excluded and will not count toward a YES resolution.
- Sources of Truth: Resolution will be determined using official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), or consensus reports from major independent international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, Agence France-Presse).
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Iran strike US military base at least once in September??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 61% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Iran strike US military base at least once in September??
- Will Iran strike US military base at least once in September? dovrebbe risolversi il 30 settembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will Iran strike US military base at least once in September??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria