Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 88.7%
Previsori
104
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 53 minuti fa
In ritardo11 mar 26, 20:32 UTC12 mar 27, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Manifold MarketsBetween Feb 1 2025 and Feb 1 2029 inclusive, will at least 10 US civilians be killed on US soil by enemy action?
Manifold MarketsBetween Feb 1 2025 and Feb 1 2029 inclusive, will at least 10 US citizens be killed by US military members on US soil?
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PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRegole
On March 11, 2026, ABC News reported that the FBI warned California police departments that Iran aspired to conduct a surprise drone attack against targets on the US West Coast in retaliation for American strikes against Iran. https://abcnews.com/US/fbi-warns-iran-aspired-attack-california-drones-retaliation/story?id=130973820
- This market resolves YES if, by March 11, 2027 (11:59 PM ET), at least one attack meeting all of the following conditions has occurred:
- The attack took place within the 50 US states or Washington, DC.
- Attacks on US territories, embassies, military bases abroad, or ships at sea do not count.
- The attack involved a physical method capable of causing death — including but not limited to firearms, explosives, edged weapons, vehicles used as weapons, or weaponized drones/autonomous systems.
- The attack does not need to successfully kill anyone, but the method must be plausibly capable of doing so.
