Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 81.9%
Previsori
17
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 17 ore fa
Obsoleto20 ago 26, 02:59 UTC1 gen 30, 04:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Jose Luis Ricon get a intracortical electrode [eg neuropixels/axoft] to foundation-model his brain by EOY2042?
Manifold MarketsReal-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).
Manifold MarketsWill a human brain (mind) be successfully uploaded into a computer before 2045?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk have a Neuralink chip implanted in his own brain by the end of 2029?
FutuurWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiWill humans colonize Mars before 2050?
KalshiRegole
Resolves YES if a map of the human brain is made by end of 2029.
- Its quality should be at least the one of the map made of a fruit fly brain: https://www.science.org/content/article/complete-map-fruit-fly-brain-circuitry-unveiled.
- Otherwise, this resolves NO.
- The result should be publicly available.
- A counter example would be some result obtained through an unethical process hidden in a classified lab located in the Mariana Trench.
Mercati aperti
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 226,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 125,2K €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 28,6 Mln €
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 108,3K €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Volume totale
- 1,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2K €
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 altri esiti
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will humans have a complete map of the human brain by EOY 2029??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 82% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will humans have a complete map of the human brain by EOY 2029??
- Will humans have a complete map of the human brain by EOY 2029? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Will humans have a complete map of the human brain by EOY 2029??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves YES if a map of the human brain is made by end of 2029.