Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 03:11 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeSì 93%
Previsori
13
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto10 set 25, 18:17 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
What is the next country to invoke NATO Article 5?
Manifold MarketsWill any CSTO member state successfully invoke Article 4 in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsWhat is the NEXT country to invoke NATO Article 4?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia attack a NATO member in 2026?
FutuurAnother NATO article 4 by which date?
PolymarketRegole
//this market was created AFTER Poland invoked Article 4 in September 2025.
- Poland is excluded for this market.
- Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty states: "The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened." There are 30 member countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), established by the North Atlantic Treaty, the full list of which can be found here: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm
- If any NATO member country invokes Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between September 10, 2022, and December 31, 2030, 11:59:59 PM ET (inclusive), this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.