Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
---NO ARTICLE 5 BEFORE 2030--- 45.8%In testa tra 14 esiti
Previsori
40
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 ore fa
Obsoleto15 nov 22, 15:48 UTC31 dic 29, 22:59 UTC
Trend
0.5%
0.2%
0.2%
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Another NATO article 4 by which date?
PolymarketNATO article 5 before 2027?
PolymarketWill NATO article 5 be instigated before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any CSTO member state successfully invoke Article 4 in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Emmanuel Macron invoke Article 16 before the end of his mandate?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?
KalshiRegole
market for Article 4:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/kolotom99/what-is-the-next-country-to-invoke-82682cdecb35)Update 2026-08-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The trigger is defined as an official action.
- If multiple countries trigger Article 5 at the same time, the market will split resolve between them.
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume totale
- 35,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1K €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 altri esiti
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per What is the next country to invoke NATO Article 5??
- Manifold Markets quota ---NO ARTICLE 5 BEFORE 2030--- al 46% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve What is the next country to invoke NATO Article 5??
- What is the next country to invoke NATO Article 5? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2029.
- Come viene liquidato What is the next country to invoke NATO Article 5??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: market for Article 4: