Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
---NO ARTICLE 5 BEFORE 2030--- 45.8%In testa tra 14 esiti
---NO ARTICLE 5 BEFORE 2030--- 45.8%Previsori
40
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 ore fa
Obsoleto15 nov 22, 15:48 UTC31 dic 29, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
What is the NEXT country to invoke NATO Article 4?
Manifold MarketsWill any other NATO member country invoke Article 4 by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsNATO article 5 before 2027?
PolymarketAnother NATO article 4 by which date?
PolymarketWill NATO article 5 be instigated before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Emmanuel Macron invoke Article 16 before the end of his mandate?
Manifold MarketsRegole
market for Article 4:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/kolotom99/what-is-the-next-country-to-invoke-82682cdecb35)Update 2026-08-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The trigger is defined as an official action.
- If multiple countries trigger Article 5 at the same time, the market will split resolve between them.