Quali sono le probabilità attuali per What is the NEXT country to invoke NATO Article 4??

Manifold Markets quota Romania al 20.2% al 24 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve What is the NEXT country to invoke NATO Article 4??

What is the NEXT country to invoke NATO Article 4? dovrebbe risolversi il 21 settembre 2030.

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

Romania 20.2%

In testa tra 23 esiti

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Variazione 7g

+7.6 pts

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 16 ore fa

Obsoleto

21 set 25, 00:40 UTC21 set 30, 00:39 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

//this market was created AFTER Poland invoked Article 4 and later Estonia did the same on September 19 2025.

"Article 4 of NATO Treaty:
The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened."
Article 4 of the NATO treaty covers the case when a member state feels threatened by another country or a terrorist organization.
The 30 member states then start formal consultations at the request of the threatened member.
The talks look at whether a threat exists and how to counter it, with decisions arrived at unanimously.