FutuurVerifica disponibilitàDati di risoluzione verificatiProbabilità implicita attuale
No 88%
No 88%Qualità del mercato
33 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
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911,7 €
Bassa liquiditàTrader
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Manifold Markets[Metaculus] Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?
Manifold MarketsNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketRegole
This event predicts whether Russian armed forces will carry out kinetic military action within the territory of a NATO member state at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive).
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official confirmations by NATO, the attacked state, or the Russian government acknowledging such action.
- If Russia conducts kinetic military action inside the territory of a NATO member during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Cyber operations, electronic warfare, accidental incidents promptly acknowledged as such, or mere troop deployments will not count.
- If official confirmations are ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations.