Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 21:52 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 50.5%
Previsori
40
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto25 nov 23, 23:48 UTC31 dic 33, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Russia attack a NATO member in 2026?
FutuurWill the US attack a NATO member, and will Trump be impeached and removed from office?
Manifold MarketsWill the US attack a NATO country before Russia does?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Russia attack Europe with military force?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia attack Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia) by 2030?
Manifold MarketsNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketRegole
The German Council on Foreign Relations (German: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik, DGAP) is a prominent Germany foreign policy research institute and they are concerned about a russian attack:
- With its imperial ambitions, Russia represents the greatest and most urgent threat to NATO countries.
- Once intensive fighting will have ended in Ukraine, the regime in Moscow may need as little as six to ten years to reconstitute its armed forces. -DGAP
- While it isn't clear when "intensive fighting will have ended in Ukraine", let's try with roughly a 10 year period from now.
- Resolves YES when Russia intentionally attacks a NATO member.
- Accidents like a misfired missiles are not sufficient.