Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 56.3%
Previsori
40
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
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Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto25 nov 23, 23:48 UTC31 dic 33, 22:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Russia attack a NATO member in 2026?
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FutuurNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketRegole
The German Council on Foreign Relations (German: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik, DGAP) is a prominent Germany foreign policy research institute and they are concerned about a russian attack:
- With its imperial ambitions, Russia represents the greatest and most urgent threat to NATO countries.
- Once intensive fighting will have ended in Ukraine, the regime in Moscow may need as little as six to ten years to reconstitute its armed forces. -DGAP
- While it isn't clear when "intensive fighting will have ended in Ukraine", let's try with roughly a 10 year period from now.
- Resolves YES when Russia intentionally attacks a NATO member.
- Accidents like a misfired missiles are not sufficient.
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume totale
- 35,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1K €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 altri esiti
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
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- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Russia attack NATO before 2034??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 56% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Russia attack NATO before 2034??
- Will Russia attack NATO before 2034? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2033.
- Come viene liquidato Will Russia attack NATO before 2034??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: The German Council on Foreign Relations (German: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik, DGAP) is a prominent Germany foreign policy research institute and they are concerned about a russian attack: