Will a proof of Fermat's Last Theorem simple enough for Fermat to have possessed be found by 2027?
One-OffScienza3mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 98%
Previsori
47
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto12 ago 23, 05:27 UTC2 gen 27, 05:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Kevin Buzzard successfully fulfill his grant specs of formalizing Fermat's Last Theorem in Lean within 5 years?
Manifold MarketsWill we have a formalized proof of the Modularity theorem by 2029-05-01?
Manifold MarketsWill Levent's proof that S^6 admits a complex structure hold up?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegole
Resolves NO on January 1, 2027 if no such proof has yet been found.
- Resolves YES if such a proof is found before then.
- This would obviously likely be by an AI, but proofs from human mathematicians also count.
- I wanted a version of this question that resolves closer to within my apocalypse timeline, so I'll actually be forced to pay up [by my reckoning] if I'm wrong and Fermat goofed or was messing with us.
- I'll also be forced to pay up if people just don't turn a lot of compute toward answering this question, but I think this setup gives overall better incentives to short-timeline people.
Mercati aperti
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 226,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 125,2K €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 28,6 Mln €
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 108,3K €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Volume totale
- 1,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2K €
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 altri esiti
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will a proof of Fermat's Last Theorem simple enough for Fermat to have possessed be found by 2027??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 98% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will a proof of Fermat's Last Theorem simple enough for Fermat to have possessed be found by 2027??
- Will a proof of Fermat's Last Theorem simple enough for Fermat to have possessed be found by 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will a proof of Fermat's Last Theorem simple enough for Fermat to have possessed be found by 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves NO on January 1, 2027 if no such proof has yet been found.