Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeZohran Mamdani 27.1%-2.3ptIn testa tra 49 esiti
Previsori
214
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
-1.5 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 minuti fa
30 nov 25, 19:39 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?
Manifold MarketsWho or what will appear on the cover of TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year issue? [add answers]
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky win the Time Magazine person of the year by 2042?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegole
This question resolves to the TIME 2026 Person of The Year.
- It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers.
- If multiple options do end up being true, then those options will resolve to an even split of 100%.
- In ambiguous cases, I will try to match the resolution of the market to who Wikipedia lists in their TIME Person of The Year article.
Confronto tra fonti di previsione
- Disponibile anche su Polymarket — TIME Person of the Year 2026 · Zohran Mamdani 30%
- Disponibile anche su Futuur — TIME Person of the Year 2026 · Zohran Mamdani 37%
- Disponibile anche su Kalshi — Time's Person of the Year for 2026 · Zohran Mamdani 30%
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 135,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7K €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 325K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year??
- Manifold Markets quota Zohran Mamdani al 27% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year??
- Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This question resolves to the TIME 2026 Person of The Year.
- Dove altro è quotato Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year??
- La stessa domanda è quotata anche su Polymarket, Futuur, Kalshi.