Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Zohran Mamdani 30.7%-0.5ptIn testa tra 20 esiti
Previsori
281
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+3.1 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 minuti fa
8 dic 25, 16:45 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
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0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
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0.1%
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?
Manifold MarketsWho or what will appear on the cover of TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year issue? [add answers]
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky win the Time Magazine person of the year by 2042?
Manifold Markets"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
PolymarketPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
KalshiNext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
KalshiRegole
This question resolves to the TIME 2026 Person of the Year.
- It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers.
- If you would like to add a new candidate or consolidated answer to the market, submit it in a comment below.
- If a comment gets enough support, I'll open the market to submissions so that you can add it, and you'll get a bonus.
- Note that all consolidated answers must be mutually exclusive, so no more specific or general versions of existing options.
- The goal is to cleanly divide the probabilistic landscape into non-overlapping categories.
Mercati aperti
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.0pt69.6%
- 940 - 950m-16.5pt26.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 319,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 98K €
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+25.0pt67%
- Callum Turner-3.0pt21%
- Jack Barton-8.0pt20%
+27 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,8 Mln €
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-6.3pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.5pt9%
+21 altri esiti
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 80K €
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 130,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 45,3K €
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 4 Mln €
- # of views of MrBeast video on day 3?
- Oscar Winner: Best Picture
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Bad Bunny: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year??
- Manifold Markets quota Zohran Mamdani al 31% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year??
- Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This question resolves to the TIME 2026 Person of the Year.