Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeFuturama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues 34.8%In testa tra 5 esiti
Previsori
10
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto30 dic 25, 16:25 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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KalshiRegole
Based on Scott Aaronson's Five Worlds of AI and this metaculus question.
- Other versions of this question use far future dates; this one instead attempts to forecast the Metaculus opinion as of the end of 2027.
- This question will resolve PROB in proportion to the Metaculus forecast at that time.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/20683)AI-Fizzle.
- In this scenario, AI “runs out of steam” fairly soon.
- AI still has a significant impact on the world (so it’s not the same as a “cryptocurrency fizzle”), but relative to current expectations, this would be considered a disappointment.
