Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

SportOne-OffChess124a

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibrato

Avviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti

Dati al 22 giu 2026, 03:43 UTC · criterio pm-quality-2

Previsione della comunità attuale

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact 10%

In testa tra 5 esiti

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 23 giorni fa

Obsoleto

30 gen 24, 2:5331 dic 50, 22:59

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria

Esito scelto

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact10%

Puntata (USDT)

Regole

Based on Scott Aaronson's Five Worlds of AI and this metaculus question.

Resolves based on the opinions of Manifold moderators in 2150.
The metaculus question uses 2050, which seems plausibly too early for an actually correct resolution, but they're both too late for profit-seeking bets.
In this scenario, AI “runs out of steam” fairly soon.
AI still has a significant impact on the world (so it’s not the same as a “cryptocurrency fizzle”), but relative to current expectations, this would be considered a disappointment.
Rather than the industrial or computer revolutions, AI might be compared in this case to nuclear power: people were initially thrilled about the seemingly limitless potential, but decades later, that potential remains mostly unrealized.

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Regole

Based on Scott Aaronson's Five Worlds of AI and this metaculus question.

Resolves based on the opinions of Manifold moderators in 2150.
The metaculus question uses 2050, which seems plausibly too early for an actually correct resolution, but they're both too late for profit-seeking bets.
In this scenario, AI “runs out of steam” fairly soon.
AI still has a significant impact on the world (so it’s not the same as a “cryptocurrency fizzle”), but relative to current expectations, this would be considered a disappointment.
Rather than the industrial or computer revolutions, AI might be compared in this case to nuclear power: people were initially thrilled about the seemingly limitless potential, but decades later, that potential remains mostly unrealized.

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

SportOne-OffChess124a

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibrato

Avviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti

Dati al 22 giu 2026, 03:43 UTC · criterio pm-quality-2

Previsione della comunità attuale

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact 10%

In testa tra 5 esiti

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 23 giorni fa

Obsoleto

30 gen 24, 2:5331 dic 50, 22:59

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria

Esito scelto

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact10%

Puntata (USDT)

Regole

Based on Scott Aaronson's Five Worlds of AI and this metaculus question.

Resolves based on the opinions of Manifold moderators in 2150.
The metaculus question uses 2050, which seems plausibly too early for an actually correct resolution, but they're both too late for profit-seeking bets.
In this scenario, AI “runs out of steam” fairly soon.
AI still has a significant impact on the world (so it’s not the same as a “cryptocurrency fizzle”), but relative to current expectations, this would be considered a disappointment.
Rather than the industrial or computer revolutions, AI might be compared in this case to nuclear power: people were initially thrilled about the seemingly limitless potential, but decades later, that potential remains mostly unrealized.

Mercati Correlati

FIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Winner

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KALSHI

Party of Next Prime Minister of Romania?

2,2K €

Independent/Technocrat: 52%

POLYMARKET

Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?

1,7K €

GPT-5: 0%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Sinquefield Cup Winner

1,4K €

Maxime Vachier-Lagrave: 10%

KALSHI

Will OpenAI achieve "very high level of confidence" in their "Superalignment" solutions by 2027-07-06?

875,3 €

Sì: 3%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Attivi in questi argomenti

BitcoinBTC$65,416.62+2.21%

EthereumETH$1,929.76+3.05%

SolanaSOL$78.01+1.17%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0748+0.76%

XRPXRP$1.13+2.45%

BNBBNB$581.74+0.30%

Notizie Correlate

Polymarket odds put Mbappé at 32.5% to win 2026 Ballon d'Or after +5.45ppBlockchain.News

SodaBot Integrates with SportixAI to Advance AI-Powered SportsFI InfrastructureBlockchain Reporter

Polymarket Golden Ball market stays 50-50 as World Cup quarter-finals loomBlockchain.News

Ripple becomes Kansas Jayhawks sports sponsor with XRP patch to appear on jerseysThe Block

Ronaldo says World Cup goodbye as Polymarket Golden Ball odds sit at 50%Blockchain.News

Kraken’s FIFA deal: Crypto’s first world cupCrypto News

Regole

Based on Scott Aaronson's Five Worlds of AI and this metaculus question.

Resolves based on the opinions of Manifold moderators in 2150.
The metaculus question uses 2050, which seems plausibly too early for an actually correct resolution, but they're both too late for profit-seeking bets.
In this scenario, AI “runs out of steam” fairly soon.
AI still has a significant impact on the world (so it’s not the same as a “cryptocurrency fizzle”), but relative to current expectations, this would be considered a disappointment.
Rather than the industrial or computer revolutions, AI might be compared in this case to nuclear power: people were initially thrilled about the seemingly limitless potential, but decades later, that potential remains mostly unrealized.