Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNot accepted anywhere by EOY 2026 55.9%In testa tra 6 esiti
Previsori
2
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto10 apr 26, 15:20 UTC31 dic 26, 16:19 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Where will this paper be accepted? (Black Mirrors:CPT-Symmetric Alternatives to Black Holes by Tzanavaris, Boyle, Turok)
Manifold MarketsIn which journal will this paper be accepted in 2026? (Milos and Pérez)
Manifold MarketsAre naked singularities from spinning black holes physically possible?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegole
This market refers to the paper "Do Black Holes Exist?" by Leonardo Modesto, Edoardo Rattu.
- An answer resolves to Yes if the paper is accepted to be published in that journal before the end of 2026.
- (The paper does not have to be published by the end of 2026; it only needs to be accepted.)
Mercati aperti
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 211K €
- Volume 24h
- 110,5K €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 28,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 21,3K €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume totale
- 1,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2K €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 104,9K €
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Where will this paper be accepted? (Do Black Holes Exist? by Modesto, Rattu)?
- Manifold Markets quota Not accepted anywhere by EOY 2026 al 56% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Where will this paper be accepted? (Do Black Holes Exist? by Modesto, Rattu)?
- Where will this paper be accepted? (Do Black Holes Exist? by Modesto, Rattu) dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Where will this paper be accepted? (Do Black Holes Exist? by Modesto, Rattu)?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This market refers to the paper "Do Black Holes Exist?" by Leonardo Modesto, Edoardo Rattu.