Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
>2028 87%In testa tra 23 esiti
Previsori
14
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto21 nov 24, 15:59 UTC31 dic 28, 00:00 UTC
Trend
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0.3%
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
A nuclear weapon is used in any conflict before January 1, 2029
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KalshiRegole
This market predicts when a nuclear weapon will be used aggressively.
- Resolution criteria:
- Qualifies as aggressive use:
- Use of any nuclear weapon (including tactical) against another nation
- Nuclear detonations caused by non-state actors or unknown perpetrators
- Accidental nuke uses that impact outside the initiating nation's borders
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 581,3K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 altri esiti
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume totale
- 55,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 96,8K €
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- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per When will the next attack by a nuclear weapon take place??
- Manifold Markets quota >2028 al 87% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve When will the next attack by a nuclear weapon take place??
- When will the next attack by a nuclear weapon take place? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2028.
- Come viene liquidato When will the next attack by a nuclear weapon take place??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This market predicts when a nuclear weapon will be used aggressively.