What will be the warning signs for the invasion of Taiwan?
Geopolitica
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
China launches military drills around Taiwan 92%In testa tra 109 esiti
Previsori
37
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 22 ore fa
Obsoleto29 gen 25, 16:25 UTC1 gen 00, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
Manifold MarketsUkraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
PolymarketUkraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?
PolymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketRegole
This question resolves once China invades Taiwan.
- The statements that are relevant as warning signs to the invasion of Taiwan, and refer to things that occurred in the 12 months prior to the date of the invasion (or overlap significantly with this period) and up until 48 hours before the invasion start time, resolve as YES.
- The statements must be at least adjacent to Taiwan or connected to significant geopolitical players with China/Taiwan interests.
- Events that could heighten global tensions, be broadly disruptive or are significant historical events are also acceptable.
- This includes but is not limited to major technological developments and catastrophes.
- In the context of this question, the invasion start time is considered to be the first moment a soldier from the Chinese mainland sets foot on the main island of Taiwan as part of an invasion force.
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-6.0pt74%
- September 18-6.0pt69%
- September 11-10.0pt61%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 363K €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)+0.3pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.3pt3%
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+3.0pt79.2%
- Yes-3.0pt20.8%
- Volume totale
- 9,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 245,5K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-1.0pt29.1%
- September 30-1.0pt12%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 altri esiti
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 301%
- July 310%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 62,8 Mln €
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per What will be the warning signs for the invasion of Taiwan??
- Manifold Markets quota China launches military drills around Taiwan al 92% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve What will be the warning signs for the invasion of Taiwan??
- What will be the warning signs for the invasion of Taiwan? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2100.
- Come viene liquidato What will be the warning signs for the invasion of Taiwan??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This question resolves once China invades Taiwan.