AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?
IAOne-Off3a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 83%
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Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo18 gen 25, 07:09 UTC1 gen 30, 06:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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PolymarketRegole
Resolves the same as the Metaculus question:
- https://www.metaculus.com/c/ai-warning-signs/31330/ai-viral-self-replication-before-2030/
- Resolution Criteria
- This question will resolve as YES if according to credible sources, an LLM or foundation model–based AI system replicates itself onto 50 or more devices.
- This question will resolve as NO if no such event occurs before January 1, 2030.
- The replication must be autonomous and must not rely on continued human control.
