PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
No 96%+0.9pt
Qualità del mercato
70 / 100
Qualità mediaVolume 24h
324,7 €
Liquidità
11,9K €
Liquidità mediaBid / Ask
3.8% / 5.0%
Spread
1.2 pt
Spread strettoCommenti
0
Variazione 7g
-0.1 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 11 minuti fa
26 ago 26, 21:43 UTC1 nov 26, 03:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
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Manifold MarketsUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 ? [Not Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsRussia-Ukraine ceasefire or peace deal to be reached by the end of 2026?
FutuurWhat lasting peace deal will come first? Russia's or Iran's?
Manifold MarketsKanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
PolymarketRegole
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
- Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
- The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative.
- Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.