If Ukraine accepts the peace deal Russia offers, will Russia keep it for at least 30 years?
GeopoliticaOne-OffRussia / UcrainaEuropa
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Aggiornato 41 minuti fa
8 mar 22, 09:56 UTC31 dic 52, 22:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegole
Currently the Peace deal Russia is offering is as follows - Ukraine recognises Crimea as Russian territory - Ukraine recognises the independence of the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk - Ukraine does not join the EU or NATO - Ukraine changes its constitiution to enshrine neutrality.
- This question resolves N/A if the war in Ukraine ends or reaches longterm ceasefire, but under different conditions than outlined above.
- Or if the year ends without ceasefire
- This question resolves "NO" If - Ukraine complies to these terms - Russia at any moment agrees that they have complied to these terms - Ukraine has not broken these terms - Russia violates the treaty anyway within 30 years of signing.
- If Ukraine breaks the treaty or 30 years pass without incident, this question will resolve "Yes".
- Mar 8, 11:10am: Use loans if you want to invest into in this market