Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 72%
Previsori
1,039
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 minuti fa
24 mag 22, 01:01 UTC1 gen 30, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump is elected in 2024, will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
PolymarketRegole
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/chinese-invasion-of-taiwan/
- Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that this market's resolution will be determined by the linked Metaculus market.
- Resolution Source: This market will resolve as the Metaculus question Chinese Invasion of Taiwan resolves.
- Guidance on Specific Scenarios: For inquiries regarding specific scenarios, such as whether a 'massive, successful blockade' would count, the resolution criteria and any clarifications on the linked Metaculus market should be consulted, as this market will follow its determination.
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume totale
- 35,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1K €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 altri esiti
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per La Cina lancerà un'invasione su vasta scala di Taiwan prima del 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 72% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve La Cina lancerà un'invasione su vasta scala di Taiwan prima del 2030??
- La Cina lancerà un'invasione su vasta scala di Taiwan prima del 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato La Cina lancerà un'invasione su vasta scala di Taiwan prima del 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/chinese-invasion-of-taiwan/