Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Global Pandemic 62.4%In testa tra 6 esiti
Previsori
37
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto25 giu 24, 20:24 UTC1 gen 30, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will a dust storm pick up material from the Great Salt Lake and cause significant health concerns by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill Y2K38 cause a significant impact in the United States?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketWhich companies will be added to the Pentagon’s Chinese military companies list?
KalshiRegole
Will we be bowing down to AI, or mother Nature will have the last laugh with a climate calamity, or global tensions will erupt in a nuclear showdown.
- Could it be that our economic systems will crumble under their own weight?
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+0.5pt73%
- September 18+1.0pt69%
- September 11+5.5pt66%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,5 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 558,1K €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.5pt75%
- New People (NL)-1.6pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.1pt3%
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+1.4pt50%
- October 3128.8%
- September 30-1.0pt11.9%
+17 altri esiti
KALSHIUS-Iran nuclear deal?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-4.0pt30%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-4.0pt22%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+1.0pt10%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- December 3110%
- November 30-1.5pt5%
- October 31-1.2pt3%
+6 altri esiti
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per What will be the primary cause of a significant global catastrophe by 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota Global Pandemic al 62% al 10 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve What will be the primary cause of a significant global catastrophe by 2030??
- What will be the primary cause of a significant global catastrophe by 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato What will be the primary cause of a significant global catastrophe by 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Will we be bowing down to AI, or mother Nature will have the last laugh with a climate calamity, or global tensions will erupt in a nuclear showdown.