Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 79.9%
Previsori
5
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 minuti fa
3 set 26, 01:24 UTC3 set 00, 01:20 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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KalshiRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if a meaningful general formulation of Alexander Vilenkin's tunneling wave function of the universe—valid beyond highly symmetric, finite-dimensional "minisuperspace" toy models—is published in a reputable, peer-reviewed physics journal and achieves broad consensus within the quantum cosmology community prior to Vilenkin's death.
- The market will resolve to NO upon the death of Alexander Vilenkin (born May 13, 1949) if no such general formulation has been established and accepted by the physics community, or if the tunneling wave function remains mathematically ill-defined or restricted to simplified toy models.
- Resolution Guidelines:
- "Well-defined" requires a formulation that is proven to be mathematically consistent and free of pathological divergences or runaway perturbation instabilities in a general (non-perturbative) framework of quantum gravity.
- "Broad consensus" will be evaluated based on review papers, citations, and consensus among leading researchers in quantum cosmology (e.g., through prominent publications in journals like Physical Review D, Journal of High Energy Physics, or Classical and Quantum Gravity).
Mercati aperti
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Vilenkin's tunneling wave function become well-defined in his life time??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 80% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Vilenkin's tunneling wave function become well-defined in his life time??
- Will Vilenkin's tunneling wave function become well-defined in his life time? dovrebbe risolversi il 3 settembre 2100.
- Come viene liquidato Will Vilenkin's tunneling wave function become well-defined in his life time??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria