Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?
IATecnologiaScienzaYearly1a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 96%
Previsori
63
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 17 ore fa
Obsoleto27 gen 26, 22:23 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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KalshiRegole
Resolves YES if a breakthrough-level problem from the Epoch AI FrontierMath Open Problems benchmark is solved.
- The benchmark classifies problems into four difficulty levels, with Breakthrough being the highest.
- Note that to avoid contamination solved problems will be removed from the benchmark.
- So a solution only counts for this market if an AI solves the problem before any human solution is found.
- Update 2026-01-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Scope of problems: Includes any future breakthrough-level problems added to the benchmark, not just those currently listed.
- AI vs human collaboration: The creator will defer to Epoch AI's determination of whether AI gets credit for a solution, but will use their own judgment if Epoch AI is unclear.