Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 97%
Previsori
41
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 minuti fa
3 lug 25, 17:16 UTC4 lug 30, 17:03 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a nuclear war before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear war start over a shitty old cargo ship in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
PolymarketRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between July 3, 2025, and July 3, 2030, a nuclear weapon is detonated in an act of war, resulting in at least one fatality.
- The detonation must be confirmed by credible sources such as major international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, BBC, Associated Press) or official government statements.
- Tests, accidents, or non-fatal incidents will not count towards resolution.
- The risk of nuclear conflict has been a subject of extensive analysis.
- Estimates vary, but some experts suggest a 1% annual probability of nuclear war, accumulating to a significant risk over multiple years.
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 581,3K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 altri esiti
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume totale
- 55,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 96,8K €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Nuclear war in next 5 years??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 97% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Nuclear war in next 5 years??
- Nuclear war in next 5 years? dovrebbe risolversi il 4 luglio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Nuclear war in next 5 years??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria