Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 95.9%
Previsori
18
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto7 gen 26, 13:22 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will China state vessels (e.g., CCG) board a commercial cargo ship heading to Taiwan's main island before 2027?
Manifold MarketsNuclear war in next 5 years?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran have a civil war before the start of 2028?
Manifold MarketsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRegole
Update 2026-01-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Any use of nuclear weapons in combat, even accidental, counts as nuclear war for the purpose of this market.
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 581,3K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 altri esiti
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume totale
- 55,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 96,8K €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will a nuclear war start over a shitty old cargo ship in 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 96% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will a nuclear war start over a shitty old cargo ship in 2026??
- Will a nuclear war start over a shitty old cargo ship in 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will a nuclear war start over a shitty old cargo ship in 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Update 2026-01-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Any use of nuclear weapons in combat, even accidental, counts as nuclear war for the purpose of this market.