Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 96%
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24
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 17 ore fa
Obsoleto24 giu 23, 22:48 UTC1 gen 00, 05:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a nuclear war before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill nuclear war cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRegole
Resolves NO if humanity is still around in 2100.
- If we are not still around, then the resolution is up to whatever intelligent non-human beings, if any, exist in our wake.
- Hopefully, they will resolve it correctly based on whether or not it was nuclear war that did us in.