Will nuclear war cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?
GeopoliticaOne-Off
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti
Dati al 27 ott 2026, 04:27 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 85.6%
Previsori
8
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato ieri
Obsoleto21 lug 23, 00:35 UTC2 gen 00, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Regole
This question will resolve as Yes if the human population decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less, and the cause is principally due to nuclear weapons.
- Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.
- I.e. resolves YES if both of the following resolve YES:
- https://manifold.markets/jack/global-catastrophe-series-by-2100-w and
- https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/
