As of November 2028, will any of the current 50 US states attempt to secede from the Union.
GeopoliticaOne-OffUS Politics2a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 84.9%
Previsori
26
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo28 dic 23, 13:16 UTC1 nov 28, 10:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
SOAI#2: A major AI lab leans back into open-sourcing frontier models to win over the current US administration
Manifold MarketsWill there be a coup attempt against Donald Trump during his second term?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump make a serious attempt to remain in power after his term?
Manifold MarketsWhich US states or territories will pass Montana-style Right-to-Try bills in 2026?
FutuurWill Alberta vote to secede from Canada?
KalshiIran coup attempt by which date?
PolymarketRegole
Will resolve YES if any US state declares independence or secession from the United States, even if it is unsuccessful due to military action or otherwise.
- Will resolve NO if all current states are still part of the union on market close.
- This includes scenarios where states merge.
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 581,3K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 altri esiti
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume totale
- 55,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 96,8K €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per As of November 2028, will any of the current 50 US states attempt to secede from the Union.?
- Manifold Markets quota No al 85% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve As of November 2028, will any of the current 50 US states attempt to secede from the Union.?
- As of November 2028, will any of the current 50 US states attempt to secede from the Union. dovrebbe risolversi il 1 novembre 2028.
- Come viene liquidato As of November 2028, will any of the current 50 US states attempt to secede from the Union.?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Will resolve YES if any US state declares independence or secession from the United States, even if it is unsuccessful due to military action or otherwise.