SOAI#2: A major AI lab leans back into open-sourcing frontier models to win over the current US administration
IAOne-Off
Manifold MarketsChiusoSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoQuesto mercato si è risolto: Yes (94.7%)
Risolto: 10 ott 2026, 21:36
Risoluzione verificata dal provider
CoinRithm dispone di prove del provider sul vincitore e sul momento di regolamento di questo mercato.
Avviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti
Dati al 11 ott 2026, 11:31 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Cronologia delle Probabilità
Yes94.7%
No5.299999999999997%
Vinta
Persa
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will a major AI lab announce that the weights of one of its models were compromised in a cyberattack before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a major AI lab enter the aerospace industry by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?
PolymarketSecond-best AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketSecond-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegole
This market resolves to YES or NO as per the 2026 State of AI Report's self grading of its prediction #2: A major AI lab leans back into open-sourcing frontier models to win over the current US administration.
- If they do not issue a ruling by EOY 2026, I will resolve by asking Anthropic's best model to evaluate based on their exact wording.
