Will Trump make a serious attempt to remain in power after his term?
PoliticaOne-OffPolitica USAElezioneGeopolitica2aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 55.1%
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Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto22 gen 24, 19:34 UTC7 gen 29, 04:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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PolymarketRegole
The attempt does not have to be successful, but it needs to involve some effort and political capital; not just a throwaway comment here and there.
- Resolves based on my own judgement of what counts as "a serious attempt".
- I won't bet.
- (The January 6th shenanigans and constant accusations of voter fraud last time were severe enough to count under this criterion.
- Seeking a third term, even if the election itself was fair, would also count.)
- Resolves N/A if he dies before the last year of his term, and he has not already done something that would qualify.