Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term?
Politica USAOne-Off2aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 69.3%
Previsori
40
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 19 ore fa
Obsoleto26 gen 24, 19:04 UTC2 feb 29, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Trump make a serious attempt to remain in power after his term?
Manifold MarketsIn 2050, who will think a Trump assassination attempt was a false flag? [Resolves to %]
Manifold MarketsWill Putin remain in power if Crimea returns to Ukraine?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a serious attempt by the GOP to overturn the election?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in October?
Polymarket2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
KalshiRegole
The attempt does not have to be successful, but it needs to involve some effort and political capital; not just a throwaway comment here and there.
- The January 6th shenanigans and constant accusations of voter fraud last time were severe enough to count, since the first involved violence and widespread condemnation, and the latter has cost him the trust of most powerful institutions.
- This resolves to a poll of the Manifold community.
- Moderators get 5 votes each, everyone else gets 1 vote.
- Voters can interpret "serious attempt" in any reasonable way that matches with the above paragraph.
- Resolves N/A if he dies before the last year of his term, and he has not already done something that would qualify.