Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term?
US PoliticsOne-Off2a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Sì 69%
Previsori
39
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto26 gen 24, 19:04 UTC2 feb 29, 04:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Regole
The attempt does not have to be successful, but it needs to involve some effort and political capital; not just a throwaway comment here and there.
- The January 6th shenanigans and constant accusations of voter fraud last time were severe enough to count, since the first involved violence and widespread condemnation, and the latter has cost him the trust of most powerful institutions.
- This resolves to a poll of the Manifold community.
- Moderators get 5 votes each, everyone else gets 1 vote.
- Voters can interpret "serious attempt" in any reasonable way that matches with the above paragraph.
- Resolves N/A if he dies before the last year of his term, and he has not already done something that would qualify.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 69% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term??
- Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 febbraio 2029.
- Come viene liquidato Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: The attempt does not have to be successful, but it needs to involve some effort and political capital; not just a throwaway comment here and there.