In 2050, who will think a Trump assassination attempt was a false flag? [Resolves to %]
PoliticaManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeA streamer, influencer, or other vacuous media personality 75.3%In testa tra 7 esiti
Previsori
7
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto27 apr 26, 00:39 UTC31 dic 50, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Elon Musk reveal that the attempted assassination of Donald Trump on July 13, 2024 was a false flag?
Manifold MarketsWill at least one other person be found guilty in a court of law for involvement in Crooks' Trump assassination attempt?
Manifold MarketsWas the Moscow concert hall attack a false flag?
Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketBrazil Presidential Election
PolymarketRegole
Longer form (canonical): In 2050, which of the listed sources will believe President Trump and/or his allies staged an assassination attempt against him?
- At some point in the year 2050, I will identify a member of each listed class and ask them whether they think any assassination attempt targeting Donald Trump during his presidency was an operation planned by Trump and/or his close allies.
- I will target people who I think have a low chance of being aware of this market.
- I will try to get them to land on a percentage chance.
- I will then resolve the answers to those percentages.
- If the subject is overall noncooperative, I will likely just choose another member of the class.
Mercati aperti
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 605,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7K €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 altri esiti
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 603,2 Mln €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 183,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3K €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 altri esiti
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per In 2050, who will think a Trump assassination attempt was a false flag? [Resolves to %]?
- Manifold Markets quota A streamer, influencer, or other vacuous media personality al 75% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve In 2050, who will think a Trump assassination attempt was a false flag? [Resolves to %]?
- In 2050, who will think a Trump assassination attempt was a false flag? [Resolves to %] dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2050.
- Come viene liquidato In 2050, who will think a Trump assassination attempt was a false flag? [Resolves to %]?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Longer form (canonical): In 2050, which of the listed sources will believe President Trump and/or his allies staged an assassination attempt against him?