KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
Japan 6%-0.1ptIn testa tra 4 esiti
Qualità del mercato
47 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
35,3 €
Liquidità
30,4K €
Alta liquiditàSpread
6.2 pt
Spread ampioDati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 minuti fa
23 apr 24, 12:00 UTC31 dic 27, 15:00 UTC
Trend
Asset Sensibili al Macro
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Regole
If the named outcome has two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Jan 1, 2024 and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:IMF
- The exact dataset for the named outcome is GDP, Real, Seasonally Adjusted, Domestic Currency from the IMF.
- If China has two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Jan 1, 2024 and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The exact dataset for China is GDP, Nominal, Unadjusted, Domestic Currency from the IMF.
- If Japan has two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Jan 1, 2024 and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The exact dataset for Japan is GDP, real, seasonally adjusted, domestic currency from the IMF.
Mercati aperti
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 91 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 Mln €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 569,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 47,4K €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 359,2K €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt94%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-6.0pt90%
- Above -4.5% of GDP80%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 16,4K €
KALSHIGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.0% of GDP-1.0pt96%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-8.0pt86%
- Above -4.0% of GDP+1.0pt51%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes-3.0pt22%
- Volume totale
- 314,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 9,5K €
- CPI core in August
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- US recession by end of 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Recession this year?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
Cripto correlate
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Which countries will have a recession before 2027??
- Kalshi quota Japan al 6% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Which countries will have a recession before 2027??
- Which countries will have a recession before 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Which countries will have a recession before 2027??
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If the named outcome has two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Jan 1, 2024 and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.